Let’s give Tiger and Phil the benefit of the doubt and declare them favorites 1A an 1B.

The build up has been intense, especially since the pairings were released. In the past month, Tiger has played very little golf and kept to himself. Mickelson won the Colonial and, more impressively, claimed to have grown an inch thanks to a new stretching routine. Seriously. Can’t you just see Tiger reading that on his couch in his mansion and saying to no one in particular: “Sweet Jesus, he’s more full of shit than I thought.” Mickelson’s bullshit aside, we’re at a really good point in time for professional golf. Mickelson has siginficantly widened the gap between himself and third in the world rankings and at the same time cut into Tiger’s giant lead. Right now, more than ever, it’s Tiger and Phil and everyone else. Speaking of everyone else…
Five (Others) Who Can
Vijay Singh - There have been only a handful of major champions over 45. Granted, Vijay at 45 is in better shape than just about everyone over 30. He still lives and dies with the putter, though his ballstriking clearly isn’t what it used to be. His nine win, 2004 campaign seems like a decade ago. Finished a shot out of the playoff last week. Has been good, not great, so far this year with three top-3s and nine top-25s in 13 starts. He’s still plenty long to handle Torrey Pines. He’s never bought into Mickelson’s bullshit (which is why old Coach likes him so much) and he’s the only player this century to dethrone Tiger. Mental toughness is never an issue.
Padraig Harrington - Paddy has been solid since his victory at Carnoustie last year, including a T5 at Augusta two months ago. He also finished a shot out of the playoff last week. Not the longest hitter in the world, he hits it straight and doesn’t mind major championship pressure. When he gets hot with the putter, there aren’t many better. He has a spotty record in the US Open, with as many missed cuts as top tens (four). However, his record in the Open Championship going into last year’s tournament was worse.

A European has to win the US Open sooner or later, right? It’s been 38 years.
Paul Casey - Only one top ten on the US tour this season. His US Open record is blah - one top ten - T10 last year at Oakmont. However, one thing stuck out about that tenth place showing - the low round of the tournament: a 66 in absolutely brutal conditions. If the wind blows and the fairways dry out over the weekend, Casey can handle the difficult conditions. The only other time he’s played the weekend at a US Open was 2006 at Winged Foot - where he finished 15th in equally brutal conditions. He likes it difficult. And he’s plenty long.
Bubba Watson - He’s played in a total of four majors, with two missed cuts, a 20th at Augusta this year and an impresssive T5 at Oakmont last year. Bottom line, the longer they make the course, the better chance he’s going to have. Do I think he has the mental toughness to get it done on Sunday? Not exactly. However, I didn’t think Cabrera had it in him last year. Or Immelman or Zack Johnson, to name a few other recent first time major winners. Plus, Bubba plays with Tiger all the time, including practice rounds this week. That’s worth a shot a side right there.

Crazier things have happened.
Geoff Ogilvy - Derailed the Tiger train at Doral this year. No reason he can’t take Him down at another of His favorite tracks. He’s long enough, he’s been there before, and he’s crafty from the rough - a must at US Opens. Adam Scott gets more press, but Ogilvy is the best Aussie on tour right now. Unlike a few of my other selections, a win by Ogilvy wouldn’t be a surprise. And that’s saying something at this particular US Open.

Five Who Can’t
Ernie Els - Sadly, Ernie is becoming a regular in this section. He did win at the Honda earlier this season, but it’s been mostly bad for the Big Easy, missing the cut in four of eight starts on the US tour. Still prone to the big miss left. Things haven’t been right since the knee injury. Have we seen the last of Ernie competing at a major?

Adam Scott - You don’t win the US Open with a broken finger. I’m not sure how you play in a US Open with a broken finger. One nasty lie and this could be a WD for young Adam. The advantage to withdrawing is he’s less likely to get trampled by the masses following Tiger and Phil.
Jim Furyk - Simply put, the course is too long. He’d have to be playing his absolute best and 2008 has been a season to forget for the normally consistent Furyk. His scoring average is almost a full stroke higher than 2007 and, accordingly, his world ranking has dropped all the way to tenth. Keep in mind he was second in the rankings this time last year.

Sergio Garcia - Sergio hasn’t received much love here at DontCostNothing.com. All the game in the world + awful attitude = no majors. He’s thrown shoes and spit in holes and blamed everyone but himself along the way. Yes, the banana in the mouth of the monkey on his back fell out with the Players victory last month. But the major monkey remains in place. He’ll win one some day - it’ll be a British Open and he’ll need a four shot lead going to the back. The US Open tests patience. And for all his talent, he still hasn’t figured that part out.

Kenny Perry - One of the five or so hottest players in the world, an American no less, is skipping the US Open because he doesn’t like Torrey Pines. Wow. If I’m Paul Azinger, and every day I thank the lord I’m not, I’m not chomping at the bit to have a guy on my Ryder Cup team who opts out of qualifying for a major in his own country. Boo.