NFL Week 1 Picks

I’ll be picking every game and every total this season - keeping a running tally.  Hop on board and I’ll lead us to the promised land. 

Sure, the first week is tough because we haven’t seen anyone play yet.  But neither have the oddsmakers.

 Picks in bold.

Thursday:

New Orleans vs Indianapolis -6 (52.5) - Over

I know the Saints were the feel good story of ‘06.  But I’m not sold for ‘07, not yet.  Indy is tough at home and the fans will be loud - first home game since the Super Bowl win.  The over is a trend pick, but both teams like to throw a ton.  And the Saints defense is iffy at best.

Sunday:

Kansas City +3 vs Houston (38) - Under

Interesting line.  Houston’s getting some props here.   I’m not sure the Texans should ever give points.  I guess they can’t be worse - and KC has some big quarterback issues.  But Houston finds ways to lose.  There will be tons of running, hence the under.

Denver -3 vs Buffalo +3 (37) - Over

I think Buffalo can play .500 ball this season.  I’m not sure why I think that.  But I like ‘em at home catching points.  Jay Cutler doesn’t strike fear in my heart.  Denver should force Buffalo to throw, hence the over.

Pittsburgh -3.5 vs Cleveland (36.5) - Under

Notice all the low totals?  Spooking me a little.  Also none of the lines are very big, nothing higher than 7.  There are gonna be some blowouts.  This should be one.  Not sure Cleveland will score.

Tennessee +6.5 vs Jacksonville (37.5)  - Under

I’ll admit to being a little Vince Young-biased.  Or a lot.  He wins football games.  So when he’s catching points, play him (and if you have the option, moneyline him).  Another spooky total.  Jacksonville, year in and year out, have a tough defense.  Take the under.  What the hell.

Carolina vs St Louis -1 (42.5) - Over

When I think two teams are more or less the same caliber and it’s virtually pick ‘em, I’ll take the home team.  Not sold on either defense.  Bulger should get off.  Over.

Philadelphia -3   vs Green Bay (43.5) - Under

Okay, this is my weekly golden lock.  Philly is gonna roll big.  Green Bay is just awful this year.  Trust me.  Put the mortgage on the Eagles.  This will get ugly, but I don’t see the Packers scoring much.  Under.

Atlanta +3.5 vs Minnesota (35.5) - Over

It’s not like Atlanta was great with Vick.  I don’t think Tavaris Jackson should give anyone points.  Atlanta might pull an ‘06 Saints and be the feel good story.  Even if they’re not, there’s no way I’m betting on Tavaris as a favorite.  Game should be ugly, but I think a couple defensive scores take it over.

Miami vs Washington -3 (34) - Over

Yuck.  This game sucks.  Miami sucks more.  I like taking overs when the total is under 35.  Hasn’t really worked in the past, but it’s got to sooner or later.

New England vs New York Jets +6.5 (41) - Over

I know, I know.  Everyone gave the Pats the Superbowl before the preseason even started.  I’m not sold.  Moss isn’t the answer to a weak receiving corps.  The Jets are, typically, spunky dogs.  They’re catching almost a touchdown at home.  Not a bad moneyline.  Both times will throw it all over the park.  This goes way over.

Tampa Bay vs Seattle -6 (41) - Over

Here’s another blowout.  Tampa will be almost as bad as the Packers and it’s not like the Seahawks stink.  A month from now this line would have been two touchdowns.  Seattle will let ‘em in a couple times.  Over.

Chicago +6 vs San Diego (42.5) - Under

Best game of the day.  That’s a lot of points to be giving a defense like Chicago.  Can LT do it again this year?  Every time he had a tough match up last season he went for around 150 and four touchdowns.  The Chargers win, but it’ll be close.  And low scoring - lots of punts.

Detroit vs Oakland -2 (40) - Under

Yuck.  Detroit, as usual, is supposed to be much improved.   Oakland sucked very badly last year.  Who knows?  Oakland’s defense wins it in an awful game. 

New York Giants +6 vs Dallas (44) - Under

Second best game of the day.  Dallas is getting lots of hype, as usual.  The Giants have had more press for Tiki and Eli playfighting than anything else.  My first inclination was to load up on Dallas, but these NFC East games are prone to being tight.  Giants.  I see both offenses sputting a bit and 44 isn’t exactly low.  Under.

Monday:

Baltimore vs Cincinnati -2.5 (40.5) - Over

If you think I’ll be tired of football by Monday, you’re wrong.  I like Cincy here in a high scoring affair.  Call it my gut.

Arizona vs San Francisco -3 (45) - Over

San Francisco is a trendy sleeper this year.  That’s usually Arizona’s role.  I like both offenses.  I don’t like either defense.  I’ll take the home team.  But I don’t love ‘em.