2008 Majors - Predictions
Posted by Coach on August 16, 2007
With the year’s last major coming to a close, I figure it’s a good time to make some predictions for 2008…
Masters - Augusta National
After grabbing three of the first six he played as a professional, Tiger has ‘only’ won one of the past five Masters tournaments. Of course the past two years he’s finished T3 and T2, respectively. Mickelson’s record has actually been comparable to Tiger’s over the past ten years. Yes, Tiger has one more victory - which is all that really matters, but if you add up Mickelson’s last ten finishes at Augusta you get 70. If you add up Tiger’s, you get 76. Over that time period Mickelson has two wins, five top-3s, and eight top-10s. Heady stuff. Tiger has three wins, five top-3s, and seven top-10s. Of course I’m not counting 1997 here, where Mickelson missed the cut and we know what young Tiger did. It’s important to note Augusta is an entirely different beast these days. When Tiger won in ‘97 there was no rough and it was about 500 yards shorter and there weren’t nearly as many trees. The bottom line is these two guys are head and shoulders above the rest. It’s hard to imagine either not being in the mix. If the course is firm and fast, that brings in a lot of the medium hitters - in the mold of Mark O’Meara/Olazabal/Zach Johnson. That said..
Winner: Tiger Woods
(Let’s all pray Tiger shaves his head in ‘08 like he did here in ‘02. The thin jheri curl just isn’t working.)
Runner up: Phil Mickelson
Darkhorse: Olazabal - As stated above, he’ll need hard and fast conditions. Few are better at navigating the Augusta greens, including Tiger.
U.S. Open - Torrey Pines
The whole world is giving this one to Tiger right now. He’s been deadly at Torrey Pines in the Buick Invitational, winning four of the last five. He runs the place. He grew up there. But Mickelson doesn’t exactly hate it, winning twice himself. It’s going to play quite a bit more difficult, of course. And they won’t be playing the easier North course one day, where everyone takes it low. If anything, that’s going to weed out a more flukish type winner. Bottom line, just like Augusta, Tiger and Mickelson are going to be the most comfortable at this venue. It’s brutally long (over 7600 yards) and plays every bit of it, as the year-round damp, cool conditions keep balls from rolling out a bunch. The only guy besides Tiger to win at Torrey Pines in the past five years? John Daly. I could see Els or Vijay being a factor. But this one’s Tiger’s. He hasn’t won the US Open since Bethpage in ‘02.
Winner: Tiger Woods
Runner up: Phil Mickelson
Darkhorse: Stuart Appleby - Hits it long and has been popping up on major leaderboards lately.
British Open - Royal Birkdale
Mark O’Meara won the last British Open played here in a playoff over Brian Watts in 1998. Tiger was in the mix that year. Birkdale tends to bring out the big names, as previous champions include Peter Thomson, Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, and Tom Watson. Like most links courses, unless the R&A gets out of control, the weather will determine the outcome. If my predictions are accurate thus far, the build up will be tremendous, as Tiger goes for his second Tiger slam. He loves the British Open and has an outstanding record with three wins and seven top tens in 11 starts as a pro. But I think, due to the relatively short length of the course, too many other players will have a say. Jim Furyk comes to mind. He can work it both ways and has been a bull in majors lately. Plus, Americans have had success here and Furyk might be the one top level player not intimidated by Tiger.
Winner: Jim Furyk
Runner up: Tiger Woods
Darkhorse: Justin Rose - Returning to the site of his amazing fourth place finish as a 17 year old amateur, where he famously holed out from 80 yards to make birdie on the 18th Sunday. Why not?
PGA Championship - Oakland Hills
The last major held at Oakland Hills was the 1996 US Open won by Steve Jones - yawn. Davis Love III and Tom Lehman both bogeyed 18 to miss a playoff by a shot. The US Ryder Cup team got smoked here in 2004. Pretty typical American major championship course. Long (renovated and stretched to 7,450 yards), big rough, difficult greens. It won’t be quite as extreme a set up as a US Open, which will bring the second (and maybe third) tier players into the mix. After all the excitement at the British, I see the PGA being a letdown. Maybe not a Shaun Micheel letdown, but close.
Winner: Steve Stricker
Runner up: Charles Howell III
Darkhorse: Camilo Villegas - Little bit of a sophomore slump so far this year. Definitely has the game. And the media (and females) would love it.
August 16, 2007 at 3:21 pm
I like the Carnac impersonation, all you need is the hat.
Hard to argue with Tiger at Augusta & Torrey. And, as you pointed out, Tiger’s due at Augusta. I think a Euro will get in the mix at the British and/or the PGA. That one at the British this year broke their “streak” and there are a lot of talented European players ready to claim a major (Rose, Garcia, etc).
Nice picks, I’m going to archive this to see how you did next year.
August 17, 2007 at 4:19 pm
I’d like to know what the money made would be if you bet 100 bucks on Tiger in every major since 1998. I have a feeling one would be close to even but I’m too lazy to go do the math.
August 17, 2007 at 4:21 pm
I’d like to know what the money made would be if you bet 100 bucks on Tiger in every major since 1998. I have a feeling one would be close to even but I’m too lazy to go do the math.
August 17, 2007 at 5:04 pm
He’s won 30% (13 for 44 - WOW) of the majors he’s entered as a pro. Sometimes he’s as low as even money, but usually he’s 3-1 or 4-1 (mix in some 8-1’s after a dry spell - like the ‘99 PGA). So that means you’d break even, give or take. But in ‘97 at Augusta the odds were very long (must have been 20-1 or more) so you’d be way up overall, just from that bet.